Strawberry, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

280
FXUS66 KMTR 040546
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
946 PM PST Tue Dec 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 157 AM PST Tue Dec 3 2024

Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue to
prevail through the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 837 PM PST Tue Dec 3 2024

Nearly stationary, strong long wave ridging along the West Coast
and a Rex Block (closed 500 mb high north in latitude of a closed
500 mb low) is resulting in above early December normal temperatures
and dry weather. Oakland downtown temperature warmed to 70F today,
this exceeded the previous record high 67F on this day in 2014, 2011,
2007 and 1979. 8 pm WMC-SFO, SAC-SFO and ACV-SFO pressure gradients
are directed offshore at 9.5 mb, 0.3 mb and 2.6 mb respectively.

Long wave ridging along the West Coast essentially remains unmovable
through the remainder of the week. Above normal temperatures and dry
weather will continue through this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 206 PM PST Tue Dec 3 2024
(This evening through Wednesday)

Near term - not a lot of change since the morning update.
Stratus/fog remains over the coastal waters/Big Sur and alto-cu
continues to stream northward over the Central Coast. The upper
atmosphere is in a little bit of a traffic jam with a Rex Block
vibe. Upper level ridging to the north and low pressure overhead
in CA. One weather highlight for today, in addition to the above
temperatures, was a potential record high for the Oakland climate
site. As of 2 PM, 70 at Oakland DT, which breaks the previous
record 67 in 2014.

Tonight through Wednesday...no significant weather impacts. As
noted earlier not a lot of movement currently in the longwave
pattern. Therefore, another mostly clear night expected. Some
patchy dense fog possible again over the North Bay valleys and
moreso over the Central Valley. Wednesday will feature another day
with above normal temperatures, especially away from the coast.
Not expecting any records for Wednesday, but Oakland will come
close again. Highs will be upper 50s to 60s along the coast and 60
to low 70s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 245 PM PST Tue Dec 3 2024
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

Two tools utilized by meteorologists to view longwave pattern
development and potential impacts are: WPC Cluster Analysis(grouping
of model solutions/uncertainty) and ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index.
First, Cluster Analysis for the next week shows pretty high
confidence in potential longwave pattern solutions. For the most
part, high pressure with above normal temps/dry conditions. This
is further supported with the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 outlooks showing
the same. While the Rex Block gets "flexed" over CA by a digging
low pressure through PacNW it does remain ever so slightly. The
passing low occurs late this week and over the weekend. While some
precip moves into CA, it does look to stay north of the forecast
area or offshore. At a minimum we`ll see a drop in temperatures
over the weekend and early next week. Over the weekend, the
undercutting low from the Rex Block does finally kick east. In its
wake and behind the passing PacNW low will be building high
pressure. A large area of upper level ridging rebuilds over the
West Coast early next week. Dry conditions remain early next
week, but temperatures stay cool. Now for the EFI, rather quiet
over the next week. The EFI highlights the above normal
temperatures both day/night, but not really impactful. One
highlight it does show are the winds. The passing disturbance
over the PacNW does help bring gusty winds to the coastal
waters/northern coast on Sunday. Impacts will be on the marine
environment.

Looking farther down the road, precip starts to come back into the
picture mid-month per ensembles.  Stay tuned...

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 946 PM PST Tue Dec 3 2024

VFR through the TAF period with fog expected to develop at STS
overnight. Night Fog currently shows clouds developing off of the
coast of the North Bay and along the Monterey Bay coastline but any
fog that does develop is not expected to reach MRY or SNS. Fog is
currently forecast to develop at STS around 12Z but there remains
some potential for fog to develop earlier than that with both
current observations already reporting 100% relative humidity at STS
and satellite observations showing a decent cloud bank currently
forming along the coastline. Fog is expected to remain fairly
localized tonight within the Sonoma Valley and isn`t anticipated to
be widespread. Light, locally variable winds continue with more
moderate northwest winds returning tomorrow morning for most sites.
Moderate SE drainage winds are possible at SNS overnight before
winds shift to out of the NW by the early afternoon hours.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Light to moderate onshore flow continues
through the late evening before winds weaken overnight and become
locally variable. Moderate NW winds around 10 knots return tomorrow
afternoon and continue into the evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Light, locally variable winds continue
overnight. Satellite shows fog developing over the Monterey
coastline but is not expected to impact SNS or MRY. Any fog that
does reach either airport should only be temporary in nature.
Moderate SE drainage winds are expected at SNS overnight before
winds become more northwesterly at both airports during the day.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 835 PM PST Tue Dec 3 2024

Long period northwest swell, light to moderate north winds, and wave
heights between 3 to 7 feet continue through late this week.
Winds look to strengthen and seas start to build late this weekend
and continuing into next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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